← All research Research · Markets and money · No. 07

Cryptocurrencies

What crypto actually is, how Bitcoin, Ethereum and stablecoins work, and where the real value and the real risk lie.

Cryptocurrency is an attempt to run money as software, without a bank, a government, or any single party in charge. Whether that is a breakthrough or a bubble is the question the deck tries to answer honestly: asset prices are volatile and speculative, yet the underlying rails are now moving trillions in real dollars.

Chapters
9
Reading time
25 min
Updated
$2.6TTotal market valueall crypto assets, 3 Nov 2026 (volatile)
560MOwners worldwide~12% of adults, up from 7% in 2024
$33TStablecoins settledon-chain value moved in 2025
59%Bitcoin dominanceBTC's share of total crypto value, Nov 2026

What this argues

  1. Crypto solves one hard problemHow to agree on who owns what, without trusting a middleman.
  2. Bitcoin is digital goldA scarce, apolitical store of value, not a payments network.
  3. Ethereum is programmable moneyA platform for applications, of which crypto is only the first.
  4. Stablecoins are the killer appDigital dollars are already moving trillions, quietly.
  5. The risks are real and specificVolatility, custody, fraud and regulation, not a vague 'it's a scam'.
00

What has changed

Updated November 2026

$2.63TTotal crypto market valueCoinGecko, 3 Nov 2026
$77.7kBitcoin priceabout 38% below the $126k high of 6 Oct 2025 (CoinGecko, 3 Nov 2026)
$296BStablecoin supplyDefiLlama, 3 Nov 2026
59.3%Bitcoin dominanceCoinGecko, 3 Nov 2026
November 2026

Bitcoin has retreated roughly 38% from its all-time high

CoinGecko data on 3 November 2026 shows bitcoin at about $77,700 and a market value of about $1.56T, against an all-time high of $126,080 on 6 October 2025. Ether traded near $2,295 with a market value of about $280B.

November 2026

Total crypto value is higher than the deck's earlier figure, and bitcoin's share has risen

CoinGecko reported a total market value of about $2.63T on 3 November 2026, with bitcoin at 59.3% and ether at 10.7% of the total.

November 2026

Stablecoin supply has kept growing even as prices fell

DefiLlama shows about $296B of USD-pegged stablecoins on 3 November 2026. Tether (USDT) stood at about $178B and USDC at about $71B, so the market is concentrated in the same two issuers as before. A tracker cited in August 2026 reported mid-2026 stablecoin supply near all-time highs while bitcoin traded flat to lower.

November 2026

Bitcoin supply is now about 96% mined

CoinGecko lists a circulating supply of about 20.1M BTC on 3 November 2026, out of the 21M cap.

July 2026

US stablecoin rules slipped past their statutory deadline

  • Regulators missed the 18 July 2026 deadline for final rules under the GENIUS Act; ten rules were proposed but none finalised (Parameter, mid-2026).
  • The Act takes effect on 18 January 2027, or 120 days after final rules are published, whichever is earlier (same source).
  • The CLARITY Act (market structure) cleared Senate Banking on a 15-9 vote but was not law as of August 2026, with floor action expected to slip into autumn or later (Liquid Mercury, Aug 2026; FinTelegram).
December 2025

Spot bitcoin ETF assets fell with the price after the October 2025 peak

Cointelegraph and CryptoSlate reported US spot bitcoin ETF net assets of $120.68B on 4 December 2025, down about $48.9B from the 6 October 2025 peak, mostly from price rather than outflows. The deck's '2026 peak' bar could not be confirmed from these sources.

Not refreshed: current spot bitcoin ETF assets, adult ownership (560M) and the Chainalysis adoption scores, Cambridge energy estimate, the stablecoin volume comparison, and annualized volatility figures.

Test yourself

Bitcoin is about $77,700 against a high of about $126,000. Which statement fits the chapter?

Tether holds about $178B and USDC about $71B of a $296B stablecoin market. What does this show?

01

What Money Is

The problem crypto solves

Money is just a shared record of who owns what, and until 2009, keeping that record always required a trusted middleman.

Banks, governments and card networks are, at bottom, ledger-keepers we agree to trust.

The core idea

Crypto replaces a trusted middleman with a shared network

CentralizedDecentralized
Who keeps the ledgerone party keeps the ledgerthousands keep identical copies
Mechanics

How a blockchain records a transaction

  1. Broadcast: you sign a transaction and send it to the network.
  2. Validate: thousands of computers check it against the shared ledger.
  3. Bundle: valid transactions are grouped into a 'block'.
  4. Chain: the block is linked to all prior blocks, permanently.
A spectrum, not a switch

Money systems run from fully centralized to fully decentralized

  1. Central bank (fully centralized): a government issues it.
  2. Your bank: one firm, your balance.
  3. PayPal / cards: private ledgers.
  4. Exchanges: custodial crypto.
  5. Stablecoins: issuer-backed tokens.
  6. Bitcoin (fully decentralized): no issuer at all.
Two models of money

Traditional finance versus crypto

Traditional financeCrypto
Ledgerheld by banksshared, public
Hoursbusiness days, borders24/7, global, minutes
Accessneeds a bank accountanyone with a phone
Trustin institutionsin code and math
The stack

Crypto is built in layers, like the internet

  1. Applications (layer 04): exchanges, wallets, DeFi, NFTs, what users touch.
  2. Smart contracts (layer 03): self-executing code that runs the applications.
  3. Blockchains, L1/L2 (layer 02): Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, the shared ledgers.
  4. Consensus (layer 01): the rules by which the network agrees on truth.

Test yourself

Why can no one quietly edit a past transaction on a blockchain?

You buy crypto on a large exchange and leave it there. Where does this sit on the money spectrum?

02

Bitcoin: Digital Gold

The first, and the simplest

Bitcoin has one job: be digitally scarce money that no one can print, freeze, or inflate away.

It is deliberately simple, slow and rigid. Those are features, not bugs.

By design

Bitcoin's rules are fixed in code

21MMaximum supplyno more will ever exist
~20.1MAlready minedabout 96% of the total (Nov 2026)
~4 yrsBetween halvingsnew supply is cut in half
~10 minPer blockthe network's heartbeat
Scarcity, scheduled

New bitcoin is issued on a fixed, ever-slowing schedule

Bitcoin supply issued against the 21 million hard cap (read from chart) million BTC
View the data
Supply issued
20090
201615.8
202419.7
203220.5
204021

Source: Bitcoin protocol · values read from the chart, approximate

Mining

How new bitcoin is created, and the ledger secured

  1. Compete: miners race to solve a hard maths puzzle.
  2. Win: the first to solve it proposes the next block.
  3. Reward: the winner earns newly-issued bitcoin plus fees.
  4. Secure: this 'work' makes rewriting history astronomically costly.
The comparison

Why Bitcoin is called 'digital gold'

BitcoinGold
Scarcityfixed at 21 millionfinite but unknown
Durabilitypermanent codepermanent metal
Divisibilityto 100-millionthshard to split
Portabilitysend globally in minutesheavy, guarded
Verifiabilityinstant, freeassay required
Price

A decade of extreme volatility, a new high, then a 38% retreat

Bitcoin price (log scale, read from chart; all-time high $126k in Oct 2025, about $78k on 3 Nov 2026) USD
View the data
BTC price
2013130
2016600
202010000
202217000
2025126000
Nov 202677700

Source: CoinMarketCap; log scale · values read from the chart, approximate

Energy

Bitcoin uses about as much electricity as a mid-size country

Annual electricity use TWh
View the data
TWh per year
Bitcoin network138
Argentina125
Norway124
Netherlands110
Google (global)26

Source: Cambridge CCAF (2025); annual TWh

The energy debate

The energy debate, stated fairly, because it matters

The critiqueThe defence
Core pointWasteful: huge energy for a speculative assetSecurity: the energy IS the anti-fraud system
Emissions / sourcesEmissions: ~40 Mt CO2e a yearCleaner: ~52% from sustainable sources
Grid powerDisplacement: competes for scarce grid powerFlexible: soaks up stranded / curtailed power

Test yourself

About 20.1M of 21M bitcoin are mined. Roughly how much of the cap is still to be issued?

Which statement best captures the defence in the Bitcoin energy debate?

03

Ethereum: The World Computer

From money to a platform

If Bitcoin is digital gold, Ethereum is a programmable platform: money you can write software on top of.

Its native asset, ether, pays for computation on a global, shared computer.

The difference

Bitcoin and Ethereum are built for different jobs

BitcoinEthereum
Goalbe sound moneybe a platform
Designsimple, rigid, secureflexible, programmable
Analogydigital golda world computer
Changealmost neverconstantly upgrading
What it enables

Smart contracts turn money into applications

  • DeFi: lending, trading and saving with no bank, just code.
  • Stablecoins: most digital dollars live on Ethereum's rails.
  • NFTs: provable ownership of digital (and real) assets.
  • DAOs: internet-native organisations governed by token holders.
  • Tokenization: stocks, bonds and funds issued on-chain.
  • Identity: portable, user-owned logins and credentials.
Evolution

Ethereum has re-engineered itself in flight

  1. Launch: the world computer goes live.
  2. DeFi Summer: lending and trading explode.
  3. The Merge: switches to proof-of-stake.
  4. Rollups: cheaper layer-2 scaling.
  5. Institutions: ETFs and tokenized funds arrive.
-99.95%Ethereum's energy use after 'The Merge'In 2022 Ethereum swapped mining for 'staking', cutting its electricity consumption by almost 100% overnight, a different answer to Bitcoin's energy question.
Culper Research

Ether's token economics

Culper Research, a short seller, posted on 5 March 2026 that it is short ether and ETH-linked securities, including BitMine, and gains if they fall. It says Fusaka (3 December 2025) left a glut of blockspace, cut gas fees about 90% and validators' tips per unit of gas by 40% to 50%, and that address poisoning inflates the usage counts bulls cite (Culper Research, 5 Mar 2026; CoinDesk, 5 Mar 2026). I could not open the full report (HTTP 403), so this is secondhand.

Ethereum, ETH a day unless stated, rounded (DefiLlama, ultrasound.money, block headers; author's calculation; windows in the sources)

WindowFeesBurnedValidatorsBase fee, gwei
30 days before244801640.24
Final week before130181110.11
30 days after11819990.14
90 days before2641061590.34
Latest 90 days228701580.24
October 20263091032060.31

Fees and burn were lower after the upgrade, but the fall began in late November, when blocks reached 60 million gas, the new default Fusaka raises, days before it activated (block headers; Ethereum Foundation, 6 Nov 2025). Validators keep the unburned fees: their share fell about 40%, then recovered. New issuance, derived from supply and burn, was 2,650 to 2,980 ETH a day in every window, far above burn; supply grew 0.78% from 2 December 2025 to 10 November 2026 (ultrasound.money). The data cannot show whether Fusaka caused the fall, or which comparison gives Culper's 90%.

BitMine had not replied to CoinDesk when it published, and I found no later reply from it or other treasury holders; ether has no issuer to reply. BitMine's 9 November release shows 6,070,092 ETH (4.97% of supply, against a goal of 5%) and a seven-day staking yield of 2.65% (BitMine, 9 Nov 2026). Its 10-K gives 2.5% to 4.0% gross; I found no mention of Culper or Fusaka in it (BitMine, 10-K, 10 Nov 2026).

Test yourself

What is a smart contract, as described in the chapter?

After the 2022 Merge, Ethereum's electricity use fell by about 99.95%. What changed?

04

Stablecoins and DeFi

Crypto's quiet killer app

The most-used crypto isn't volatile at all: stablecoins are digital dollars that move at the speed of the internet.

They are the bridge between the traditional dollar and the crypto economy.

The peg

How a fiat-backed stablecoin holds its value

  1. Deposit: you send $1 to the issuer (e.g. Circle).
  2. Mint: the issuer creates 1 token, backed 1:1.
  3. Use: the token moves globally, 24/7, in seconds.
  4. Redeem: anyone can swap it back for $1, which anchors the price.
Scale

Stablecoins are already a payments giant

$296BMarket valuetotal stablecoins outstanding, Nov 2026
$33TSettled in 2025+72% year on year
$178BUSDT (Tether)the largest, by supply (Nov 2026)
$71BUSDC (Circle)the transaction leader (Nov 2026)
Settlement

Stablecoin volume now rivals the card networks

Annual payment volume $T
View the data
Volume
Stablecoins (2025, on-chain)33
Visa16
Mastercard9
PayPal1.7

Source: On-chain data; Visa/Mastercard filings (2025). On-chain volume is not adjusted.

Not all equal

Stablecoins carry very different risks

TypeExample and backing
Fiat-backed, auditedUSDCcash and T-bills, attested monthly
Fiat-backed, opaqueUSDTlarge, profitable, less transparent
Crypto-collateralizedDAIover-collateralized with crypto
AlgorithmicTerrano real backing, has failed before
Why it matters

Stablecoins are crypto's clearest real-world use

  • Dollar access: savers in unstable economies hold digital dollars.
  • Remittances: cross-border transfers in seconds, for cents.
  • Settlement: businesses settle instantly, 24/7, without banks.
  • On-ramp: they are how most people enter and exit crypto.

Test yourself

What keeps a fiat-backed stablecoin near $1?

Stablecoins settled $33T on-chain in 2025, against Visa at $16T. Why is this not a clean like-for-like win?

05

Adoption and Markets

Who actually uses this?

Growth

Ownership roughly doubled in a year

Share of adults owning crypto (read from chart) %
View the data
Adults owning crypto
20191
20201.8
20213.9
20224.2
20234.7
20246.8
202512.4

Source: Crypto.com; Chainalysis (2025) · values read from the chart, approximate

Geography

Grassroots adoption is led by the developing world

Global Adoption Index 2025 (relative score) score
View the data
Relative score
India100
United States88
Pakistan74
Vietnam71
Brazil68
Nigeria64
Indonesia60

Source: Chainalysis Global Adoption Index 2025 (relative score)

Wall Street

The ETF brought institutions in

Spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management $B
View the data
ETF assets
Launch5
End 202463
2025110
2026 peak200

Source: ETF issuer filings (2024-26)

560 millionPeople now own crypto worldwideUp from roughly 300 million two years earlier. Whatever one thinks of the asset, the audience is now larger than most countries' populations.

Test yourself

Adult crypto ownership rose from 6.8% in 2024 to 12.4% in 2025. What does that show?

Why do emerging economies lead the adoption index?

06

Risks and Debates

The honest chapter

Both sides

The case for and against, stated fairly

The case forThe case against
AccessOpen access: banking for anyone with a phoneVolatility: unusable as everyday money
IntegritySound money: a supply no one can inflateFraud: scams and hacks are endemic
Infrastructure and energyReal rails: stablecoins already workEnergy: Bitcoin's footprint is large
OutlookOptionality: a hedge against institutionsUncertainty: regulation could reshape it all
The risk register

Six risks a serious investor tracks

  • Volatility: 70%+ drawdowns are normal, not exceptional.
  • Custody and hacks: 'not your keys, not your coins', and exchanges fail.
  • Fraud and scams: the open, irreversible system is a fraudster's dream.
  • Regulation: rules on stablecoins and exchanges can reshape the market.
  • Concentration: a few whales and exchanges hold enormous sway.
  • Complexity: most losses come from user error, not the tech failing.
Volatility

Crypto is far more volatile than any traditional asset

Annualized volatility (illustrative, representative ranges) %
View the data
Annualized volatility
Bitcoin52
Ethereum68
Gold15
S&P 50015
US Dollar8

Source: Illustrative, annualized volatility, representative ranges

The swing factor

Regulation will shape the next decade

  • Stablecoins first: clear rules would legitimise the most useful use case.
  • Exchanges next: custody and disclosure rules protect users.
  • Securities question: which tokens are securities remains contested.
  • Global patchwork: rules differ by country, and capital flows to the friendliest.

Test yourself

Per the chapter, where do most losses come from?

Bitcoin's annualized volatility is shown at about 52% versus 15% for the S&P 500. What follows?

07

What to Watch

Signposts, not predictions

The dashboard

Four dials worth watching

Stablecoin $On-chain dollarsthe real-usage signal
ETF flowsInstitutional demandwho's buying
RegulationLegal claritythe swing factor
FeesCost to useadoption tailwind or brake
Key takeaways

Five signposts for the next 24 months

  1. Do stablecoins keep scaling? The clearest measure of real-world usefulness.
  2. Does regulation arrive, and how? Clear rules legitimise; harsh ones fragment.
  3. Do institutions keep buying? ETF flows reveal conviction beyond retail.
  4. Does Ethereum stay the platform? Or do faster chains erode its lead?
  5. Does a real consumer app emerge? Beyond trading, the missing 'why' for most people.

Test yourself

Which dial is the best signal of real-world use?

Why watch ETF flows?

08

Reference

Glossary and sources

Reference

Plain-language glossary

  • Blockchain: a shared, tamper-evident ledger held by many computers.
  • Private key: the secret that proves you own your coins.
  • Wallet: software that stores your keys and signs transactions.
  • Mining: spending computing power to secure Bitcoin and earn new coins.
  • Staking: locking up coins to secure a proof-of-stake network.
  • Smart contract: code that runs automatically when conditions are met.
  • Stablecoin: a token pegged 1:1 to a currency like the US dollar.
  • DeFi: financial services (lending, trading) run by code, not banks.

Bitcoin is money you cannot inflate; Ethereum is money you can program; stablecoins are money that finally moves like information. Everything else is detail, or noise.

Key takeaways

The five conclusions to take away

  1. One real problem, solved: trustless agreement on who owns what.
  2. Bitcoin is not Ethereum is not stablecoins: three different bets, three different risk profiles.
  3. Stablecoins are the proof: crypto is already useful, at trillions of scale.
  4. The risks are specific: volatility, custody, fraud, regulation, not mystery.
  5. Regulation is the swing factor: it will decide whether crypto matures or stalls.
Reference

Sources and further reading

  • CoinMarketCap / CoinGecko: market capitalization and price data (2026).
  • Chainalysis: 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index and Geography of Cryptocurrency report.
  • Crypto.com: Crypto Market Sizing report (global ownership, 2025).
  • DefiLlama: stablecoin supply and market-share data.
  • Bloomberg: 'Stablecoin transactions rose to record $33 trillion in 2025' (Jan 2026).
  • Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance: Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (2025).
  • ETF issuer filings: spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management (2024-26).
  • Bitcoin and Ethereum protocol documentation: supply schedule, consensus, The Merge.
  • Figures marked 'illustrative' or 'estimate' are compilations; crypto data is time-stamped and volatile.

Test yourself

In the glossary, what does staking mean?

Which summary matches the chapter's closing idea?

Sources cited

CoinMarketCap · CoinGecko · Crypto.com · DefiLlama · Bloomberg · Chainalysis · Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF) · ETF issuer filings · Visa and Mastercard filings · Bitcoin protocol · Ethereum protocol documentation · CoinGecko, 3 Nov 2026 · DefiLlama, 3 Nov 2026 · Parameter, 2026 · Liquid Mercury, Aug 2026 · FinTelegram, 2026 · Cointelegraph, Dec 2025 · CryptoSlate, Dec 2025 · Culper Research, X thread on ether, 5 Mar 2026, as unrolled on Thread Reader App (full report not opened: HTTP 403; its title is not shown in the thread) · CoinDesk, 'Short seller Culper bets against ether, Tom Lee's BitMine citing death spiral risk', 5 Mar 2026 · Ethereum Foundation, Fusaka mainnet announcement, 6 Nov 2025; ethereum.org, Fusaka upgrade page, accessed 11 Nov 2026 · DefiLlama, Ethereum chain fees and revenue, daily series (fees are base, priority and blob fees; revenue is ETH burned), accessed 11 Nov 2026; ETH amounts convert DefiLlama's USD figures at its ETH price for the same UTC day; 'validators' is fees minus burn (priority fees, excluding MEV); windows: 30 days before Fusaka is 3 Nov to 2 Dec 2025, final week 26 Nov to 2 Dec 2025, 30 days after 3 Dec 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, 90 days before 4 Sep to 2 Dec 2025, latest 90 days 13 Aug to 10 Nov 2026; averages are the author's calculation · ultrasound.money, ETH supply series, accessed 11 Nov 2026; new issuance is the change in supply plus DefiLlama burn (author's calculation) · Ethereum mainnet block headers (gas limit, base fee per gas and gas used, sampled every 2 hours, and every 6 hours for the 90-day windows), read from a public node (publicnode.com), accessed 11 Nov 2026; averages are the author's calculation · BitMine Immersion Technologies, ETH holdings press release (PR Newswire), 9 Nov 2026 (holdings as of 8 Nov 2026) · BitMine Immersion Technologies, Form 10-K for the year to 31 Aug 2026, filed 10 Nov 2026 (SEC EDGAR)

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Research, not investment advice. Figures as of , from the sources cited.

Legal information and disclosures

These are my own views as of the update shown on this page. They can change without notice, and I have no duty to update them. Past performance does not indicate future results, and any investment can lose money.

This is for education only. It is not investment, legal, tax, medical or accounting advice, and it is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security in any jurisdiction. It does not consider your goals or circumstances.

Figures from company filings, public agencies and other third parties are believed to be reliable, but I have not independently verified them and cannot guarantee them. Forecasts and anything marked as an estimate rest on assumptions that may prove wrong.

Please do not copy or republish this material without my written consent.