Cryptocurrencies
What crypto actually is, how Bitcoin, Ethereum and stablecoins work, and where the real value and the real risk lie.
Cryptocurrency is an attempt to run money as software, without a bank, a government, or any single party in charge. Whether that is a breakthrough or a bubble is the question the deck tries to answer honestly: asset prices are volatile and speculative, yet the underlying rails are now moving trillions in real dollars.
What this argues
- Crypto solves one hard problemHow to agree on who owns what, without trusting a middleman.
- Bitcoin is digital goldA scarce, apolitical store of value, not a payments network.
- Ethereum is programmable moneyA platform for applications, of which crypto is only the first.
- Stablecoins are the killer appDigital dollars are already moving trillions, quietly.
- The risks are real and specificVolatility, custody, fraud and regulation, not a vague 'it's a scam'.
What has changed
Updated November 2026
Bitcoin has retreated roughly 38% from its all-time high
CoinGecko data on 3 November 2026 shows bitcoin at about $77,700 and a market value of about $1.56T, against an all-time high of $126,080 on 6 October 2025. Ether traded near $2,295 with a market value of about $280B.
Total crypto value is higher than the deck's earlier figure, and bitcoin's share has risen
CoinGecko reported a total market value of about $2.63T on 3 November 2026, with bitcoin at 59.3% and ether at 10.7% of the total.
Stablecoin supply has kept growing even as prices fell
DefiLlama shows about $296B of USD-pegged stablecoins on 3 November 2026. Tether (USDT) stood at about $178B and USDC at about $71B, so the market is concentrated in the same two issuers as before. A tracker cited in August 2026 reported mid-2026 stablecoin supply near all-time highs while bitcoin traded flat to lower.
Bitcoin supply is now about 96% mined
CoinGecko lists a circulating supply of about 20.1M BTC on 3 November 2026, out of the 21M cap.
US stablecoin rules slipped past their statutory deadline
- Regulators missed the 18 July 2026 deadline for final rules under the GENIUS Act; ten rules were proposed but none finalised (Parameter, mid-2026).
- The Act takes effect on 18 January 2027, or 120 days after final rules are published, whichever is earlier (same source).
- The CLARITY Act (market structure) cleared Senate Banking on a 15-9 vote but was not law as of August 2026, with floor action expected to slip into autumn or later (Liquid Mercury, Aug 2026; FinTelegram).
Spot bitcoin ETF assets fell with the price after the October 2025 peak
Cointelegraph and CryptoSlate reported US spot bitcoin ETF net assets of $120.68B on 4 December 2025, down about $48.9B from the 6 October 2025 peak, mostly from price rather than outflows. The deck's '2026 peak' bar could not be confirmed from these sources.
Not refreshed: current spot bitcoin ETF assets, adult ownership (560M) and the Chainalysis adoption scores, Cambridge energy estimate, the stablecoin volume comparison, and annualized volatility figures.
What Money Is
The problem crypto solves
Money is just a shared record of who owns what, and until 2009, keeping that record always required a trusted middleman.
Banks, governments and card networks are, at bottom, ledger-keepers we agree to trust.
Crypto replaces a trusted middleman with a shared network
| Centralized | Decentralized | |
|---|---|---|
| Who keeps the ledger | one party keeps the ledger | thousands keep identical copies |
How a blockchain records a transaction
- Broadcast: you sign a transaction and send it to the network.
- Validate: thousands of computers check it against the shared ledger.
- Bundle: valid transactions are grouped into a 'block'.
- Chain: the block is linked to all prior blocks, permanently.
Money systems run from fully centralized to fully decentralized
- Central bank (fully centralized): a government issues it.
- Your bank: one firm, your balance.
- PayPal / cards: private ledgers.
- Exchanges: custodial crypto.
- Stablecoins: issuer-backed tokens.
- Bitcoin (fully decentralized): no issuer at all.
Traditional finance versus crypto
| Traditional finance | Crypto | |
|---|---|---|
| Ledger | held by banks | shared, public |
| Hours | business days, borders | 24/7, global, minutes |
| Access | needs a bank account | anyone with a phone |
| Trust | in institutions | in code and math |
Crypto is built in layers, like the internet
- Applications (layer 04): exchanges, wallets, DeFi, NFTs, what users touch.
- Smart contracts (layer 03): self-executing code that runs the applications.
- Blockchains, L1/L2 (layer 02): Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, the shared ledgers.
- Consensus (layer 01): the rules by which the network agrees on truth.
Bitcoin: Digital Gold
The first, and the simplest
Bitcoin has one job: be digitally scarce money that no one can print, freeze, or inflate away.
It is deliberately simple, slow and rigid. Those are features, not bugs.
Bitcoin's rules are fixed in code
New bitcoin is issued on a fixed, ever-slowing schedule
View the data
| Supply issued | |
|---|---|
| 2009 | 0 |
| 2016 | 15.8 |
| 2024 | 19.7 |
| 2032 | 20.5 |
| 2040 | 21 |
Source: Bitcoin protocol · values read from the chart, approximate
How new bitcoin is created, and the ledger secured
- Compete: miners race to solve a hard maths puzzle.
- Win: the first to solve it proposes the next block.
- Reward: the winner earns newly-issued bitcoin plus fees.
- Secure: this 'work' makes rewriting history astronomically costly.
Why Bitcoin is called 'digital gold'
| Bitcoin | Gold | |
|---|---|---|
| Scarcity | fixed at 21 million | finite but unknown |
| Durability | permanent code | permanent metal |
| Divisibility | to 100-millionths | hard to split |
| Portability | send globally in minutes | heavy, guarded |
| Verifiability | instant, free | assay required |
A decade of extreme volatility, a new high, then a 38% retreat
View the data
| BTC price | |
|---|---|
| 2013 | 130 |
| 2016 | 600 |
| 2020 | 10000 |
| 2022 | 17000 |
| 2025 | 126000 |
| Nov 2026 | 77700 |
Source: CoinMarketCap; log scale · values read from the chart, approximate
Bitcoin uses about as much electricity as a mid-size country
View the data
| TWh per year | |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin network | 138 |
| Argentina | 125 |
| Norway | 124 |
| Netherlands | 110 |
| Google (global) | 26 |
Source: Cambridge CCAF (2025); annual TWh
The energy debate, stated fairly, because it matters
| The critique | The defence | |
|---|---|---|
| Core point | Wasteful: huge energy for a speculative asset | Security: the energy IS the anti-fraud system |
| Emissions / sources | Emissions: ~40 Mt CO2e a year | Cleaner: ~52% from sustainable sources |
| Grid power | Displacement: competes for scarce grid power | Flexible: soaks up stranded / curtailed power |
Ethereum: The World Computer
From money to a platform
If Bitcoin is digital gold, Ethereum is a programmable platform: money you can write software on top of.
Its native asset, ether, pays for computation on a global, shared computer.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are built for different jobs
| Bitcoin | Ethereum | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal | be sound money | be a platform |
| Design | simple, rigid, secure | flexible, programmable |
| Analogy | digital gold | a world computer |
| Change | almost never | constantly upgrading |
Smart contracts turn money into applications
- DeFi: lending, trading and saving with no bank, just code.
- Stablecoins: most digital dollars live on Ethereum's rails.
- NFTs: provable ownership of digital (and real) assets.
- DAOs: internet-native organisations governed by token holders.
- Tokenization: stocks, bonds and funds issued on-chain.
- Identity: portable, user-owned logins and credentials.
Ethereum has re-engineered itself in flight
- Launch: the world computer goes live.
- DeFi Summer: lending and trading explode.
- The Merge: switches to proof-of-stake.
- Rollups: cheaper layer-2 scaling.
- Institutions: ETFs and tokenized funds arrive.
Ether's token economics
Culper Research, a short seller, posted on 5 March 2026 that it is short ether and ETH-linked securities, including BitMine, and gains if they fall. It says Fusaka (3 December 2025) left a glut of blockspace, cut gas fees about 90% and validators' tips per unit of gas by 40% to 50%, and that address poisoning inflates the usage counts bulls cite (Culper Research, 5 Mar 2026; CoinDesk, 5 Mar 2026). I could not open the full report (HTTP 403), so this is secondhand.
Ethereum, ETH a day unless stated, rounded (DefiLlama, ultrasound.money, block headers; author's calculation; windows in the sources)
| Window | Fees | Burned | Validators | Base fee, gwei |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 days before | 244 | 80 | 164 | 0.24 |
| Final week before | 130 | 18 | 111 | 0.11 |
| 30 days after | 118 | 19 | 99 | 0.14 |
| 90 days before | 264 | 106 | 159 | 0.34 |
| Latest 90 days | 228 | 70 | 158 | 0.24 |
| October 2026 | 309 | 103 | 206 | 0.31 |
Fees and burn were lower after the upgrade, but the fall began in late November, when blocks reached 60 million gas, the new default Fusaka raises, days before it activated (block headers; Ethereum Foundation, 6 Nov 2025). Validators keep the unburned fees: their share fell about 40%, then recovered. New issuance, derived from supply and burn, was 2,650 to 2,980 ETH a day in every window, far above burn; supply grew 0.78% from 2 December 2025 to 10 November 2026 (ultrasound.money). The data cannot show whether Fusaka caused the fall, or which comparison gives Culper's 90%.
BitMine had not replied to CoinDesk when it published, and I found no later reply from it or other treasury holders; ether has no issuer to reply. BitMine's 9 November release shows 6,070,092 ETH (4.97% of supply, against a goal of 5%) and a seven-day staking yield of 2.65% (BitMine, 9 Nov 2026). Its 10-K gives 2.5% to 4.0% gross; I found no mention of Culper or Fusaka in it (BitMine, 10-K, 10 Nov 2026).
Stablecoins and DeFi
Crypto's quiet killer app
The most-used crypto isn't volatile at all: stablecoins are digital dollars that move at the speed of the internet.
They are the bridge between the traditional dollar and the crypto economy.
How a fiat-backed stablecoin holds its value
- Deposit: you send $1 to the issuer (e.g. Circle).
- Mint: the issuer creates 1 token, backed 1:1.
- Use: the token moves globally, 24/7, in seconds.
- Redeem: anyone can swap it back for $1, which anchors the price.
Stablecoins are already a payments giant
Stablecoin volume now rivals the card networks
View the data
| Volume | |
|---|---|
| Stablecoins (2025, on-chain) | 33 |
| Visa | 16 |
| Mastercard | 9 |
| PayPal | 1.7 |
Source: On-chain data; Visa/Mastercard filings (2025). On-chain volume is not adjusted.
Stablecoins carry very different risks
| Type | Example and backing | |
|---|---|---|
| Fiat-backed, audited | USDC | cash and T-bills, attested monthly |
| Fiat-backed, opaque | USDT | large, profitable, less transparent |
| Crypto-collateralized | DAI | over-collateralized with crypto |
| Algorithmic | Terra | no real backing, has failed before |
Stablecoins are crypto's clearest real-world use
- Dollar access: savers in unstable economies hold digital dollars.
- Remittances: cross-border transfers in seconds, for cents.
- Settlement: businesses settle instantly, 24/7, without banks.
- On-ramp: they are how most people enter and exit crypto.
Adoption and Markets
Who actually uses this?
Ownership roughly doubled in a year
View the data
| Adults owning crypto | |
|---|---|
| 2019 | 1 |
| 2020 | 1.8 |
| 2021 | 3.9 |
| 2022 | 4.2 |
| 2023 | 4.7 |
| 2024 | 6.8 |
| 2025 | 12.4 |
Source: Crypto.com; Chainalysis (2025) · values read from the chart, approximate
Grassroots adoption is led by the developing world
View the data
| Relative score | |
|---|---|
| India | 100 |
| United States | 88 |
| Pakistan | 74 |
| Vietnam | 71 |
| Brazil | 68 |
| Nigeria | 64 |
| Indonesia | 60 |
Source: Chainalysis Global Adoption Index 2025 (relative score)
The ETF brought institutions in
View the data
| ETF assets | |
|---|---|
| Launch | 5 |
| End 2024 | 63 |
| 2025 | 110 |
| 2026 peak | 200 |
Source: ETF issuer filings (2024-26)
Risks and Debates
The honest chapter
The case for and against, stated fairly
| The case for | The case against | |
|---|---|---|
| Access | Open access: banking for anyone with a phone | Volatility: unusable as everyday money |
| Integrity | Sound money: a supply no one can inflate | Fraud: scams and hacks are endemic |
| Infrastructure and energy | Real rails: stablecoins already work | Energy: Bitcoin's footprint is large |
| Outlook | Optionality: a hedge against institutions | Uncertainty: regulation could reshape it all |
Six risks a serious investor tracks
- Volatility: 70%+ drawdowns are normal, not exceptional.
- Custody and hacks: 'not your keys, not your coins', and exchanges fail.
- Fraud and scams: the open, irreversible system is a fraudster's dream.
- Regulation: rules on stablecoins and exchanges can reshape the market.
- Concentration: a few whales and exchanges hold enormous sway.
- Complexity: most losses come from user error, not the tech failing.
Crypto is far more volatile than any traditional asset
View the data
| Annualized volatility | |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 52 |
| Ethereum | 68 |
| Gold | 15 |
| S&P 500 | 15 |
| US Dollar | 8 |
Source: Illustrative, annualized volatility, representative ranges
Regulation will shape the next decade
- Stablecoins first: clear rules would legitimise the most useful use case.
- Exchanges next: custody and disclosure rules protect users.
- Securities question: which tokens are securities remains contested.
- Global patchwork: rules differ by country, and capital flows to the friendliest.
What to Watch
Signposts, not predictions
Four dials worth watching
Five signposts for the next 24 months
- Do stablecoins keep scaling? The clearest measure of real-world usefulness.
- Does regulation arrive, and how? Clear rules legitimise; harsh ones fragment.
- Do institutions keep buying? ETF flows reveal conviction beyond retail.
- Does Ethereum stay the platform? Or do faster chains erode its lead?
- Does a real consumer app emerge? Beyond trading, the missing 'why' for most people.
Reference
Glossary and sources
Plain-language glossary
- Blockchain: a shared, tamper-evident ledger held by many computers.
- Private key: the secret that proves you own your coins.
- Wallet: software that stores your keys and signs transactions.
- Mining: spending computing power to secure Bitcoin and earn new coins.
- Staking: locking up coins to secure a proof-of-stake network.
- Smart contract: code that runs automatically when conditions are met.
- Stablecoin: a token pegged 1:1 to a currency like the US dollar.
- DeFi: financial services (lending, trading) run by code, not banks.
Bitcoin is money you cannot inflate; Ethereum is money you can program; stablecoins are money that finally moves like information. Everything else is detail, or noise.
The five conclusions to take away
- One real problem, solved: trustless agreement on who owns what.
- Bitcoin is not Ethereum is not stablecoins: three different bets, three different risk profiles.
- Stablecoins are the proof: crypto is already useful, at trillions of scale.
- The risks are specific: volatility, custody, fraud, regulation, not mystery.
- Regulation is the swing factor: it will decide whether crypto matures or stalls.
Sources and further reading
- CoinMarketCap / CoinGecko: market capitalization and price data (2026).
- Chainalysis: 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index and Geography of Cryptocurrency report.
- Crypto.com: Crypto Market Sizing report (global ownership, 2025).
- DefiLlama: stablecoin supply and market-share data.
- Bloomberg: 'Stablecoin transactions rose to record $33 trillion in 2025' (Jan 2026).
- Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance: Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (2025).
- ETF issuer filings: spot Bitcoin ETF assets under management (2024-26).
- Bitcoin and Ethereum protocol documentation: supply schedule, consensus, The Merge.
- Figures marked 'illustrative' or 'estimate' are compilations; crypto data is time-stamped and volatile.
Sources cited
CoinMarketCap · CoinGecko · Crypto.com · DefiLlama · Bloomberg · Chainalysis · Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF) · ETF issuer filings · Visa and Mastercard filings · Bitcoin protocol · Ethereum protocol documentation · CoinGecko, 3 Nov 2026 · DefiLlama, 3 Nov 2026 · Parameter, 2026 · Liquid Mercury, Aug 2026 · FinTelegram, 2026 · Cointelegraph, Dec 2025 · CryptoSlate, Dec 2025 · Culper Research, X thread on ether, 5 Mar 2026, as unrolled on Thread Reader App (full report not opened: HTTP 403; its title is not shown in the thread) · CoinDesk, 'Short seller Culper bets against ether, Tom Lee's BitMine citing death spiral risk', 5 Mar 2026 · Ethereum Foundation, Fusaka mainnet announcement, 6 Nov 2025; ethereum.org, Fusaka upgrade page, accessed 11 Nov 2026 · DefiLlama, Ethereum chain fees and revenue, daily series (fees are base, priority and blob fees; revenue is ETH burned), accessed 11 Nov 2026; ETH amounts convert DefiLlama's USD figures at its ETH price for the same UTC day; 'validators' is fees minus burn (priority fees, excluding MEV); windows: 30 days before Fusaka is 3 Nov to 2 Dec 2025, final week 26 Nov to 2 Dec 2025, 30 days after 3 Dec 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, 90 days before 4 Sep to 2 Dec 2025, latest 90 days 13 Aug to 10 Nov 2026; averages are the author's calculation · ultrasound.money, ETH supply series, accessed 11 Nov 2026; new issuance is the change in supply plus DefiLlama burn (author's calculation) · Ethereum mainnet block headers (gas limit, base fee per gas and gas used, sampled every 2 hours, and every 6 hours for the 90-day windows), read from a public node (publicnode.com), accessed 11 Nov 2026; averages are the author's calculation · BitMine Immersion Technologies, ETH holdings press release (PR Newswire), 9 Nov 2026 (holdings as of 8 Nov 2026) · BitMine Immersion Technologies, Form 10-K for the year to 31 Aug 2026, filed 10 Nov 2026 (SEC EDGAR)
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Research, not investment advice. Figures as of , from the sources cited.
Legal information and disclosures
These are my own views as of the update shown on this page. They can change without notice, and I have no duty to update them. Past performance does not indicate future results, and any investment can lose money.
This is for education only. It is not investment, legal, tax, medical or accounting advice, and it is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security in any jurisdiction. It does not consider your goals or circumstances.
Figures from company filings, public agencies and other third parties are believed to be reliable, but I have not independently verified them and cannot guarantee them. Forecasts and anything marked as an estimate rest on assumptions that may prove wrong.
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